Perfectly Confident

How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely

by Don A. Moore

"Perfectly Confident" (2020) delves into the nuanced nature of confidence and its optimal use.

The book examines the pitfalls of excessive confidence and the dangers of insufficient self-belief. Author Don A. Moore, utilizing insights from psychology, economics, and his research in business leadership, provides a roadmap to achieving balanced confidence.

Don A. Moore is a professor at the University of California, Berkeley's Haas School of Business. His expertise spans leadership, negotiations, and decision-making. Moore has contributed to a textbook on managerial decision-making and written for top-tier outlets like the Wall Street Journal, Fortune, and the Harvard Business Review.

A primer on achieving just the right amount of confidence.

Confidence is crucial—not only for inspiring others but also for seizing pivotal opportunities. Yet, the market is saturated with books that simplify the concept, often promoting unwavering self-assurance. However, this approach can lead to disastrous consequences. Overconfidence can quickly escalate into major setbacks, potentially ruining your reputation permanently. This summary guides you toward mastering the art of perfect confidence by enhancing your decision-making skills and recognizing your limits, thereby establishing you as a credible and reliable leader.

This summary will teach you:

• The real value of confidence;

• How to distinguish between a leader who earns trust and one who deceives; and

• Why choosing between options is more effective than a simple yes or no approach.

Overconfidence is often seen as benign, but that’s a misconception.

The famous quote attributed to Henry Ford, “Think you can or think you can't—either way you're right,” encapsulates a popular view on confidence: that success hinges solely on one's self-belief.

While having confidence is crucial and a lack thereof can lead to missed chances, the reality is that success is not solely a product of self-belief. In fact, overconfidence often poses a greater threat to success than underconfidence.

Overconfidence is perilous because it influences decision-making. Effective decision-making is challenging due to the frequent lack of comprehensive information, leading many to rely on intuition, which can be flawed. Historical events like the 2008 financial crisis were exacerbated by overconfident assumptions about the stability of subprime mortgages, leading to a widespread economic downturn.

Research by psychologist Gabrielle Oettingen demonstrates that excessive confidence can result in poorer outcomes. Her findings indicate that those who indulge in fantasies about future successes often achieve less. Whether it’s a student under-preparing for an exam or a company overly optimistic about financial forecasts, overconfidence can undermine efforts.

Leverage confidence as a catalyst to initiate necessary work towards your goals, not as a shortcut around them. True confidence should motivate preparation and effort, not replace them.